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Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin - IRI THESys

Simulating the effects of land policy liberalization on land use and farm structures in Sichuan, China

Kristin Leimer is a PhD candidate at the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO). Her research includes the analysis of land-use decision-making and agent-based modelling.

Photo: Small scale agriculture in Sichuan, China (by Kristin Leimer)
Photo: Kristin Leimer

Photo: Small scale agriculture in Sichuan, China (by Kristin Leimer)


Chinas rapid economic development in the last few decades was accompanied by massive waves of domestic migration from rural to urban areas. At the same time, population control policies kept birth rates low. Combined, this caused a rapid decline and aging of the rural population and a sharp decrease of the agricultural labour force. While this may have caused a decline in the number of farms and the abandonment of agricultural land in free-market conditions, structural change in Chinese agriculture was impeded by insecure land use rights legal constraints on land market transactions. The Chinese government therefore experiments with land rights reforms with potentially profound impacts on agricultural development. The aim of this project is to investigate the consequences of land market liberalization on household-level land use decisions and aggregate land use changes. Household survey data from Sichuan, one experimental-zone of the Chinese government for a rural land reform, serves to calibrate decision trees that quantify the determinants of local land-use change. In the next step the results will be included in an agent-based modelling framework to simulate the impacts of different scenarios of future demographic development and of changes in land market policies on land use structures and agricultural production.

Kristin Leimer is a doctoral researcher at the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) in Halle/Saale. She studied Geography, Economics and Political Science at Martin-Luther-University in Halle/Saale. During her studies she has worked as student assistant for the Department of Economic Geography at MLU and for IAMO.

 

Christin Meyer
Photo: Markus Scholz

Contact

Kristin Leimer, Doctoral Researcher
THESys Graduate Program
Phone: +49 (0)345 2928 237
E-mail: Leimer@iamo.de