Melanie Schweikart, Leonardo R. Ramírez, Ina Säumel, Balancing growth and conservation: Land-use policy scenarios for Uruguay’s grasslands, Land Use Policy, Volume 169, 2026, 108110, ISSN 0264-8377, Land Use Policy (2026).
What if the fate of one of the world’s most biodiverse temperate grassland ecosystems is being decided right now? Uruguay’s native grasslands cover much of the country and support biodiversity, ecosystem services, livestock production, and rural livelihoods. Yet these landscapes are under increasing pressure from agricultural intensification and expanding timber plantations.
In our new study, we explore three alternative futures for Uruguay’s grasslands by 2030. Using spatially explicit land-use modelling and policy scenario analysis, we ask a simple but urgent question: Can economic growth and grassland conservation coexist? The results are striking. Under a business-as-usual pathway, native grasslands are projected to continue declining, largely driven by cropland expansion. However, relatively targeted policy interventions—such as limiting agricultural expansion, restricting plantation growth, and establishing conservation buffer zones—could safeguard more than 10,000 km² of grassland compared to current trajectories. Perhaps most importantly, our findings demonstrate that land-use futures are not predetermined. Different policy choices lead to dramatically different landscapes, biodiversity outcomes, and opportunities for rural communities. The study provides practical insights for policymakers, planners, conservation practitioners, and stakeholders seeking pathways that balance agricultural productivity with ecological resilience. The future of Uruguay’s grasslands remains unwritten. The question is: which future will we choose?
